NFL Team Ratings, Week 1

2019/09/11

I’m still playing around with the Glicko2 ratings system as a way to evaluate NFL teams. Right now, the model is pretty dumb1: it doesn’t take into account player injuries, movement, etc. I plan to incorporate that some day, but for now, here are the results for Week 1. Dots represent the rating and the bars are 95% confidence intervals:

At the top, this model probably overrates Tennessee and underrates Kansas City, but who knows? The NFL is weird.


  1. it essentially uses the last two seasons to inform 2019 Glicko2 ratings, allowing for significantly more volatility than in the traditional Glicko2 model, with some other minimal adjustments [return]