Threshold, Skin, Fortress, Win


Based on last night’s results, we know one thing for sure: the Saints are going 19–0 this year. At this point, that is a relatively uninteresting and uncontorversial statement. What we do not know, however, is the order in which they are going to go 19–0. Will they do it in classic, numerical-order fashion or will they take a more unexpected path?

Since we are in a golden age of advanced NFL stats, I thought I would use advanced simulation to answer this question. So, I made a simplifying assumption that each win is randomly distributed throughout the season and simulated 10,000 Saints’ perfect seasons to see, on average, in which week they won which game. In this graph, each blue line represents one simulated perfect season and each black dot represents the average win number for that week.

So, actually, on average, the Saints will win their 10.01th game tonight. That’s just science.