Here are the odds of winning the division after week 4, per Football Outsiders (click to enlarge):
The Saints won! Their odds of winning the division increased! If you extrapolate the current trend over 16 games…the Falcons would win the division. But the Saints would be second!
The Saints started 1–3 for the second consecutive year and the third time under Sean Payton. Per our favorite record chart, the average 1–3 team finishes with about 6.2 wins on the year. That seems about right given what we’ve seen so far. About 14% of 1–3 teams make the playoffs, which is slightly less than the chances of rolling a 6 on a six-sided die. If the Saints win their next game, the odds become about 1 in 5…but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.