NFL-wide playoff odds, week 1


Both Football Outsiders and 538 produce playoff odds every week. They results are broadly similar, but sometimes it’s interesting to compare them. Here they both are in one plot (click to enlarge):

The farther a team is from the diagonal line, the more the two models disagree. The strongest disagreement right now is over Denver, where 538 has them about 74% likely to make the playoffs and Football Outsiders has them about 37% likely. Although Football Outsiders’ methodology isn’t 100% clear, I think this might be the difference: 538’s ELO system doesn’t know that Peyton Manning has retired, whereas Football Outsiders’ DVOA takes this into account. The same is likely the case for Carolina and Josh Norman. Another likely factor: Football Outsiders’ model bakes in some regression for both the Carolina and Denver defenses, whereas ELO doesn’t attempt to make those sorts of predictions.