Here are the cumulative adjusted YPA totals through Week 6. Note that AYPA doesn’t adjust for opponent strength at all, so teams with similar numbers might not be similarly good, especially this early in the season. The Saints are now slightly above average on offense and around average on defense.
Here are the cumulative adjusted YPA totals through Week 5. Note that AYPA doesn’t adjust for opponent strength at all, so teams with similar numbers might not be similarly good, especially this early in the season. The Saints are creeping up there, but still have performed below-average on defense and around average on offense. This is a bit incongruous given their record, but it matches DVOA and their standard offensive and defensive stats. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
Here are the cumulative adjusted YPA totals through Week 4. Note that AYPA doesn’t adjust for opponent strength at all, so teams with similar numbers might not be similarly good, especially this early in the season. The Saints continue to perform at a below-average rate, though the results have been good.
Here are the week 4 adjusted YPA stats (note that MNF is missing UPDATE: Now featuring MNF and a horrid performance from the Bengals!). It’s going to take a while to get used to the Saints having a bottom-5 offense.
I had a minute, so here are the cumulative adjusted YPA totals through Week 3. Note that AYPA doesn’t adjust for opponent strength at all, so teams with similar numbers might not be similarly good, especially this early in the season.
I’m short on time right now, but here are the Week 3 adjusted YPA figures. I hope to have whole year totals (and Glicko updates) later this week, but we’ll see.
Onward!
While I’m screwing around with passing data, I thought it would be interesting to see how Drew Brees’ career has progressed and if there’s a discernable trend in the Saints’ overall offensive efficiency over time. In short, are the Saints getting less efficient as he ages?
Basically: no.
Last night’s game was pretty mediocre for Cam Newton: middle-of-the pack in terms of passing efficiency and one of his worst rushing performances against a fairly crappy team. Here’s where it fits into his career:
Obviously, rushing is a big part of his game. For fun, here’s a comparison to Drew Brees:
Honestly, that’s a bit tough to read, so here’s a plot with just their career averages:
Yeah, that seems about right.
I’ve now incorporated data going back to 2010 in the Glicko2 model, which changes the results kind of a lot. I’m not sure what to make of this, other than these new results roughly mirror other stats-based power-rankings, so they’re probably a good start. I’ll continue optimizing as time allows.
I’ve also changed the presentation method from a graph to a table with embedded bars. It’s…okay for now.
Also, this includes the results of last night’s TB-CAR game…the Saints are still sitting pretty.
| Team | Rating |
|---|---|
| NE | 2520 |
| NO | 2464 |
| LA | 2449 |
| PHI | 2408 |
| LAC | 2402 |
| KC | 2384 |
| DAL | 2380 |
| MIN | 2346 |
| BAL | 2338 |
| SEA | 2331 |
| PIT | 2317 |
| TEN | 2293 |
| CHI | 2286 |
| IND | 2272 |
| HOU | 2227 |
| ATL | 2227 |
| GB | 2199 |
| BUF | 2175 |
| DET | 2174 |
| CAR | 2154 |
| WAS | 2142 |
| CLE | 2135 |
| SF | 2120 |
| OAK | 2114 |
| MIA | 2111 |
| TB | 2107 |
| CIN | 2100 |
| JAX | 2098 |
| NYG | 2095 |
| DEN | 2063 |
| ARI | 2054 |
| NYJ | 1981 |
| JAC | 1965 |
I’m still playing around with the Glicko2 ratings system as a way to evaluate NFL teams. Right now, the model is pretty dumb1: it doesn’t take into account player injuries, movement, etc. I plan to incorporate that some day, but for now, here are the results for Week 1. Dots represent the rating and the bars are 95% confidence intervals:
At the top, this model probably overrates Tennessee and underrates Kansas City, but who knows? The NFL is weird.